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Election 2020: Biden Holds Narrow Lead Over Trump in Latest CPEC Keystone State Poll

Pennsylvania Top Line Summary
Likely Statewide Voter Survey
Interviews Conducted September 15 – September 17, 2020
Sample Size: 820 Registered/Likely Voters

(Wednesday, September 23rd) – FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

CPEC LLC (Consulting, Polling, and Election Calling) today releases its newest Pennsylvania statewide poll in the Presidential race showing Democratic nominee Joe Biden holding a narrow lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump with six weeks remaining until the November 3 election.

In the telephone poll of 820 likely Pennsylvania voters, conducted between September 15th through September 17th, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by a 4.9%, or 50.3% to 45.4% margin. Only 3.7% of voters remain undecided, and only 0.6% support a third candidate. The margin of error for the poll is +/-2.3%, putting Biden’s 4.9-point lead potentially as low as 2.6% or as high as 7.2%. By way of comparison, Trump carried Pennsylvania over Hillary Clinton by a razor-thin margin of 0.72% in 2016.

The current survey, available at www.cpecllc.com, and attached to this release, breaks down the state results into seven geographical regions. Not surprisingly, Biden’s biggest strength is in Philadelphia, where he enjoys an 81.2% to 13.1% lead over Trump with 5.7% of voters undecided. Equally predictable is Trump’s largest region of support coming from the mid-state counties comprising the “T”, where Trump leads Biden by a margin of 66.5% to 28.4% with 4.6% of voters undecided.

The survey also included the three statewide row offices on the ballot.

Democratic incumbent Attorney General Josh Shapiro holds a sizable lead over Republican challenger Heather Heidelbaugh, leading 40.9% to 21.2% with 36.9% undecided.

The race for the open Auditor General position, however, is a statistical tie. Democratic candidate Nina Ahmed coming in at 21.0% and Republican Timothy DeFoor coming in at 19.5%, with a whopping 58.7% of likely voters still undecided.

Incumbent Democratic State Treasurer Joe Torsella is leading Republican challenger Stacy Garrity by nearly 8 points, but his 24.1% to 16.3% lead leaves 58.4% of likely voters still undecided.


In addition to the topline results, here are six noteworthy takeaways from the survey:

Women Voters Are Carrying Biden in PA

If Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania, there is no mistaking the fact that he will get there on the backs of women voters. Biden’s 53.9% to 42.3% margin equals a substantial 11.6% lead among women. Trump leads among male voters, but by a much smaller margin of 48.9% to 46.2%. Trump’s 2.7% lead is within the margin of error of +/- 3.7%, putting the candidates in a statistical dead heat with men.

Trump’s large deficit among women is a substantial problem for his campaign. Instead of a singular reason, his poor showing can be attributed to any number of factors ranging from allegations of infidelity and sexual assault to his mismanagement of COVID-19 to his policies of separating families at the U.S./Mexico border.

The Trump campaign is clearly attempting a “Hail Mary” to win over women voters by nominating a woman to fill the Supreme Court seat vacated by Ruth Bader Ginsburg, but the strategy is a risky one. Trump’s nominee for the Court will be viewed by both Democrats and Republicans as the vote that could definitively overturn Roe v. Wade, meaning that the political gain will be limited to pro-life voters, but how many of those voters are already with Trump? The other problem with Trump’s strategy is assuming that women will support him for appointing a woman to the Supreme Court based solely on her gender; if that were the case, Hillary Clinton would have carried Pennsylvania in 2016.

The other prong of Trump’s attempt to win women voters, specifically “white suburban women,” is his law and order message. And while it remains to be seen if his approach is ultimately successful, Trump is currently falling short with Pennsylvania women with very little time left in the race.

Independents Breaking Biden

Independent voters in Pennsylvania are breaking for Joe Biden over Donald Trump, with the Democratic nominee holding a 50.8% to 38.4% lead among likely independent voters.

Although Trump is carrying independents in areas where he is strong overall, three regions of the state (Allegheny, Philadelphia, and South East) show leads of 26.3%, 62.5%, and 31.2% respectively.

Undecided Voters are the Unicorns of 2020

Given the deeply divided nature of our current political environment, it should come to no surprise that there are very few undecided voters. The percentage of undecided voters in the Presidential race is only 3.7%, which is only 1.4% outside the margin of error.

Considering that Trump only won Pennsylvania by 0.72% in 2016, even the smallest swing by undecided voters could have an outsized impact in the race.

Interestingly, the regions with the highest percentage of undecided voters come from opposite ends of the political spectrum. Philadelphia, where Biden has a whopping 68.1% edge, leads the way with 5.7% of likely voters undecided. The next highest percentage of undecided voters is the “T” region, where Trump has a 38.4% lead over Biden with 4.6% of likely voters undecided.

With six weeks remaining before the election, the clear opportunity for each candidate to win over these rare and highly valued undecided voters will be the upcoming debates. Then again, considering what a roller coaster ride 2020 has been, it feels like literally anything could happen between now and November 3.

It’s Not Easy Being Green

On September 17, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court handed down a ruling removing Green Party Presidential candidate Howie Hopkins from the ballot for failing to follow proper procedures. This leaves Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen as the only third-party Presidential candidate on the ballot in Pennsylvania. (In case you were wondering, Kanye West didn’t qualify.)

While Green Party supporters were enraged that their standard-bearer was tossed from the ballot, many Democrats are thrilled. Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 49,941 votes, which is more than the 44,292-vote margin by which Donald Trump won the state. And while Stein’s candidacy raised plenty of eyebrows after the fact, there is no doubt that she, as third-party candidates like Ralph Nader before her, directly impacted the outcome of the election.

The question now is what Green Party voters will do in November. While many may write in Hopkins or leave the top of the ballot blank in protest, enough could easily accept Joe Biden as the lesser of two evils and reluctantly cast their vote for the Democratic nominee. The good news for Biden is that reluctant votes count just the same, which will theoretically help Biden build his narrow lead without losing votes to a third-party candidate.

Meanwhile, the presence of Jo Jorgensen as a Libertarian candidate will likely cost Trump voters, as Libertarians tend to align much more strongly with Republican ideals over the Democrats. Could we see a scenario flipping the script of 2016, with a third-party candidate costing Trump the election?

A Tale of Two Corners: Trump’s Drop-Off in Southeast and Southwest

Among the most interesting takeaways from the survey is the decrease in support for Trump in specific regions as compared to the vote totals in 2016, assuming that undecided voters break proportionately.

The only region where Trump gained support is the North East/Lehigh Valley, with a 2.68% boost. In other regions, the loss of Trump support from 2016 to 2020 is nominal; he is down 2.59% in Allegheny, 1.83% in Philadelphia, 1.62% in the Capitol region, and even 1.47% in the “T”.

But in two regions, Trump’s drop in support from 2016 to 2020 are substantial. In the South East region, which has turned deeper blue since 2016, Trump’s support is down 4.85%, and in the South West region, which has turned deeper red since 2016, Trump has dropped a eye-opening 5.69%. The fact that the biggest drops in support come from two diametrically opposed corners of the state is both significant and worrisome for the Trump campaign. So, what does it mean?

In the “collar counties” of the South East, part of Trump’s tumble is likely attributed to women voters. Women in the South East are supporting Biden nearly 2-1, with the Democrat holding a 64.6% to 33.5% lead over Trump with only 1.9% undecided. Biden’s lead among women in the South East region is 7.3% points higher than his lead among men.

The South East has turned increasingly blue in recent election cycles, with big wins in state legislative and Congressional races in 2018 and counties like Chester going from red to blue for the first time in decades in 2019. Additionally, affluent voters in the region may have been drawn to Trump’s business experience as a reason to back him in 2016, but the bloom is definitely off the rose for many voters coming back to the Democrats in 2020.

Trump’s 5.69% drop in support in the South West region, the largest drop statewide, appears at first glance to be an outlier. But a closer look shows definite plausible factors to explain the results. The South West region has been shading red for about a decade now; legislative and Congressional seats are nearly all held by Republicans, and counties like Washington going from blue to red for the first time in decades in 2019.

So, what is causing Trump to lose ground in what is some of the most solid pro-Trump area in the state? The answer is that it may be nothing specific that Trump has done; it may be who Trump is running against this time around. As a group, voters in the South West region despised Hillary Clinton in 2016, with the former First Lady only winning 27.46% of the vote.

They may not love Joe Biden, but they do not hate him as much, with Biden receiving 39.6% from voters in the South West region in our survey.

With only 2.7% of voters in the South West region undecided, Trump may not be able to win back enough people who he desperately needs to win Pennsylvania again this year. The low number of undecided voters indicates that Trump’s narrative that Joe Biden being a puppet of the radical left may fall just short of being as effective as he needs it to be.

The real problem for Trump here is that it will be almost impossible to win back both blocks of drop-off voters in the South East and South West because they would seem to be total opposites of one another. For every vote Trump wins back in one corner of the state, he runs the risk of losing another one in the opposite corner. And with Trump trailing by a small but clear margin statewide, he cannot afford to leave any of his 2016 votes on the table.

Shapiro Shines Among Row Officer Candidates

One conclusion is inescapable upon examining the survey results for statewide row office candidates: Josh Shapiro is the only one who should not be looking for the panic button. His 19.7% lead over Republican Heather Heidelbaugh with only 36.9% of voters undecided is proof positive that Shapiro’s high-profile approach to the job has worked. From taking on the Catholic Church to mounting numerous legal challenges against the Trump administration to his apt use of the media (he did a national interview on 60 Minutes this past week), Shapiro continues to carefully shape his public image with an almost certain run for higher office looming.

By comparison, the State Treasurer and Auditor General races seem to be wide-open, with a whopping 58% of likely voters undecided just six weeks from Election Day. Incumbent Democratic Treasurer Joe Torsella does have a 7.8% edge over Republican Stacy Garrity, but with so many undecided voters that lead can evaporate overnight. Despite being fellow incumbents, Torsella clearly lacks the statewide support enjoyed by Josh Shapiro, but the nature of their respective jobs puts the Attorney General in the spotlight much more.

Nina Ahmed won a spirited Democratic Primary for the open Auditor General seat, but is in a statistical tie with Republican Timothy DeFoor with six weeks left to go. A look at the regional numbers is alarming for Ahmad, who was born in Bangladesh, is trying to become the first woman of color elected to statewide executive office. In her home region of Philadelphia, Ahmed only has 25.3% of the vote with a whopping 59.4% undecided and an even more whopping 14.9% of the vote going to DeFoor, her Republican opponent. By comparison, Donald Trump is only polling at 13.1% in Philadelphia. If you are a candidate from Philadelphia and your opponent is polling better than Donald Trump in Philadelphia, then you’re in trouble not just in Philadelphia, you’re in trouble everywhere.

METHODOLOGY AND DATA COLLECTION PROCEDURES

CPEC LLC conducted an automated survey of 820 likely 2020 General Election voters from September 15th to September 17th. The survey asked three control questions (Party, Gender, and Age) in order to match to a likely voter universe. Only those responses which matched on all three questions were included. The survey responses had a standard deviation of 33.78, resulting in a calculated Margin of Error of +/-2.3% overall at a 95% confidence level. Response percentages are weighted to reflect the demographic and regional composition as well as the turnout of each region. All processes followed all applicable federal and state laws.

ABOUT CPEC LLC

CPEC LLC is a leading Pennsylvania-based firm dedicated to consulting, polling, and election calls for Democratic candidates. President Shannon Bilger’s extensive experience includes over a decade as Director of Information Technology for the Pennsylvania Democratic Party as well as voter file/website manager. He also served as Mifflin County Democratic Party Chairman (1998-2003, 2004-2010). Shannon has worked with over 140 campaigns over the past three decades. Sales Manager Jesse White is a former four-term member of the State House of Representatives and now owns his own Democratic consulting and digital management firm, Perpetual Fortitude.

For media inquiries, please contact Jesse White at 724-859-0665 or jesse@cpecllc.com.

Question 1: In the race for President of the United States, for which of the following are you most likely to vote?

REGION BIDEN TRUMP UND OTHER LIKELY VOTE LIKELY % MOE +/-
Allegheny 59.0% 36.9% 3.6% 0.5% 650,635 10.61% 6.2%
Philadelphia 81.2% 13.1% 5.7% 0.0% 708,364 11.56% 7.6%
South East 61.0% 36.2% 2.9% 0.0% 1,359,209 22.17% 5.3%
Capitol 40.2% 53.4% 4.3% 2.1% 992,348 16.19% 7.3%
NE/Lehigh 43.1% 52.4% 2.9% 1.7% 689,409 11.25% 4.8%
The T 28.4% 66.5% 4.6% 0.5% 773,731 12.62% 6.0%
West SW 39.6% 57.7% 2.7% 0.0% 956,255 15.60% 6.8%
Statewide 50.3% 45.4% 3.7% 0.6% 6,129,951   2.8%

Question 2: In the race for Pennsylvania Attorney General, for which of the following are you most likely to vote?

REGION SHAPIRO HEIDELBAUGH UNDECIDED OTHER LIKELY VOTE LIKELY % MOE +/-
Allegheny 56.4% 24.1% 19.5% 0.0% 650,635 10.61% 6.4%
Philadelphia 44.1% 16.8% 38.3% 0.9% 708,364 11.56% 7.8%
South East 48.7% 26.5% 24.8% 0.0% 1,359,209 22.17% 5.4%
Capitol 37.8% 17.9% 44.3% 0.0% 992,348 16.19% 7.5%
NE/Lehigh 44.8% 10.3% 42.5% 2.4% 689,409 11.25% 5.0%
The T 31.3% 21.8% 44.8% 2.1% 773,731 12.62% 6.1%
West SW 34.3% 22.9% 42.3% 0.4% 956,255 15.60% 7.0%
Statewide 40.9% 21.2% 36.9% 1.1% 6,129,951   3.0%

Question 3: In the race for Pennsylvania Auditor General, for which of the following are you most likely to vote?

REGION AHMED DeFOOR UNDECIDED OTHER LIKELY VOTE LIKELY % MOE +/-
Allegheny 23.4% 17.5% 58.2% 0.9% 650,635 10.61% 6.7%
Philadelphia 25.3% 14.9% 59.4% 0.4% 708,364 11.56% 7.9%
South East 32.9% 15.8% 51.3% 0.0% 1,359,209 22.17% 5.6%
Capitol 14.3% 20.4% 65.3% 0.0% 992,348 16.19% 7.8%
NE/Lehigh 13.9% 21.5% 63.6% 1.0% 689,409 11.25% 5.1%
The T 8.9% 22.2% 68.4% 0.5% 773,731 12.62% 6.3%
West SW 12.7% 23.7% 63.5% 0.0% 956,255 15.60% 7.2%
Statewide 21.0% 19.5% 58.7% 0.7% 6,129,951   3.1%

Question 4: In the race for State Treasurer, for which of the following are you most likely to vote?

REGION TORSELLA GARRITY UNDECIDED OTHER LIKELY VOTE LIKELY % MOE +/-
Allegheny 23.8% 16.0% 59.3% 0.9% 650,635 10.61% 6.9%
Philadelphia 24.4% 14.1% 60.7% 0.8% 708,364 11.56% 8.3%
South East 27.4% 17.7% 54.9% 0.0% 1,359,209 22.17% 5.9%
Capitol 21.1% 18.4% 60.5% 0.0% 992,348 16.19% 8.2%
NE/Lehigh 21.0% 13.0% 63.6% 2.4% 689,409 11.25% 5.6%
The T 18.1% 18.8% 61.1% 2.0% 773,731 12.62% 6.6%
West SW 15.1% 22.4% 62.5% 0.0% 956,255 15.60% 7.6%
Statewide 24.1% 16.3% 58.4% 1.2% 6,129,951   3.6%

Summary/Conclusions:

Question 1: In the race for President of the United States, for which of the following are you most likely to vote?

With a 4.9% lead among likely Pennsylvania voters, Democratic nominee Joe Biden holds a narrow lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump heading into the final six weeks of the 2020 Election. With a margin of error of +/- 2.3%, Biden’s lead could be a low as 2.6% or as high as 7.2%. Considering Trump only won by 0.72% in 2016, and that only 3.7% of voters are undecided, Trump needs to find a way to flip the script to recapture the Keystone State in 2020.

Question 2: In the race for PA Attorney General, for which of the following are you most likely to vote?

Democratic incumbent Attorney General Josh Shapiro has nearly a 2-1 lead in his re-election to a second term. His high public profile and impressive fundraising capabilities have him well-positioned for a comfortable victory against Republican challenger Heather Heidelbaugh.

Question 3: In the race for PA Auditor General, for which of the following are you most likely to vote?

In this race for the open Auditor General seat, Democrat Nina Ahmed faces challenges in her quest to become the first woman of color elected to statewide executive office. Ahmed is only polling at 21.0% statewide, putting her in a statistical tie with Republican Timothy DeFoor, who is polling at 19.5%; a whopping 58.7% of likely voters remain undecided. More ominous is that Ahmed is only polling slightly better in her home region of Philadelphia, coming in at 25.3%; by comparison, Joe Biden is polling at 81.2% in Philadelphia. In fact, the Republican nominee Timothy DeFoor is actually polling better than Donald Trump in Philadelphia, which all adds up to trouble for Ahmed and the Democrats.

Question 4: In the race for PA State Treasurer, for which of the following are you most likely to vote?

Democratic incumbent Joe Torsella currently holds a 24.1% to 16.3% lead over Republican challenger Tracy Garrity, with 58.4% of likely voters undecided. Unlike Josh Shapiro, Joe Torsella seems to be lacking sufficient name recognition to put his re-election bid over the finish line without some serious effort over the next six weeks.

REGION BREAKDOWN (COUNTIES):

cpec polling pa democratsALLEGHENY
Allegheny

PHILADELPHIA
Philadelphia

SOUTH EAST
Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery

CAPITOL
Adams, Berks, Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, York

NORTH EAST/ LEHIGH VALLEY
Carbon, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Luzerne, Monroe, Northampton, Pike, Wayne

WEST/ SOUTH WEST
Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Cambria, Crawford, Erie, Fayette, Greene, Indiana, Lawrence, Mercer, Somerset, Washington, Westmoreland

THE “T”
Bedford, Blair, Bradford, Cameron, Centre, Clarion, Clearfield, Clinton, Columbia, Elk, Forest, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Jefferson, Juniata, Lycoming, McKean, Mifflin, Montour, Northumberland, Perry, Potter, Schuylkill, Snyder, Sullivan, Susquehanna, Tioga, Union, Venango, Warren, Wyoming

cpec polling pa democrats

CROSS TAB RESULTS

Question 1: In the race for President of the United States, for which of the following are you most likely to vote?

BY PARTY MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 3.0%
Allegheny Biden Trump Und   NE/Lehigh Biden Trump Und
Democratic 83.3% 15.0% 1.7%   Democratic 70.0% 22.5% 5.0%
Republican 15.0% 82.5% 2.5%   Republican 10.7% 89.3% 0.0%
Ind/Other 52.6% 26.3% 15.8%   Ind/Other 42.9% 47.6% 4.8%
Total 59.2% 36.8% 3.4%   Total 42.6% 52.7% 2.9%
Philadelphia Biden Trump Und   The T Biden Trump Und
Democratic 91.7% 3.3% 5.0%   Democratic 80.4% 13.0% 6.5%
Republican 16.7% 77.8% 5.6%   Republican 5.0% 93.8% 1.3%
Ind/Other 75.0% 12.5% 12.5%   Ind/Other 23.5% 52.9% 17.6%
Total 81.5% 12.8% 5.7%   Total 28.8% 66.4% 4.3%
South East Biden Trump Und   West SW Biden Trump Und
Democratic 93.0% 7.0% 0.0%   Democratic 76.0% 20.0% 4.0%
Republican 23.3% 72.1% 4.7%   Republican 9.6% 87.7% 2.7%
Ind/Other 62.5% 31.3% 6.3%   Ind/Other 38.1% 61.9% 0.0%
Total 60.5% 36.8% 2.7%   Total 39.9% 57.1% 3.0%
Capitol Biden Trump Und   Statewide Biden Trump Und
Democratic 87.5% 9.4% 3.1%   Democratic 83.5% 13.1% 3.2%
Republican 6.8% 84.7% 5.1%   Republican 12.2% 83.7% 3.4%
Ind/Other 50.0% 45.5% 4.5%   Ind/Other 50.8% 38.4% 8.0%
Total 40.3% 53.6% 4.3%   Total 49.8% 45.6% 3.9%
BY GENDER MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 3.0%
Allegheny Biden Trump Und   NE/Lehigh Biden Trump Und
Male 55.6% 36.4% 8.0%   Male 36.3% 58.1% 2.2%
Female 61.8% 37.4% 0.0%   Female 49.5% 46.9% 3.5%
Total 58.9% 36.9% 3.7%   Total 43.3% 52.2% 2.9%
Philadelphia Biden Trump Und   The T Biden Trump Und
Male 81.8% 12.4% 5.9%   Male 26.1% 71.3% 1.7%
Female 80.6% 13.9% 5.5%   Republican 30.2% 62.1% 7.6%
Total 81.5% 12.8% 5.7%   Total 28.8% 66.4% 4.3%
South East Biden Trump Und   West SW Biden Trump Und
Male 57.3% 38.5% 4.2%   Male 36.8% 63.2% 0.0%
Female 64.6% 33.5% 1.9%   Female 41.8% 53.4% 4.8%
Total 61.2% 35.8% 3.0%   Total 39.4% 58.1% 2.5%
Capitol Biden Trump Und   Statewide Biden Trump Und
Male 34.2% 55.9% 5.1%   Male 46.2% 48.9% 3.7%
Female 45.5% 50.9% 3.7%   Female 53.9% 42.3% 3.8%
Total 40.2% 53.2% 4.3%   Total 50.3% 45.3% 3.7%
By Party/Sex Margin of Error +/- 4.3% Margin of Error +/- 4.7%
Male Biden Trump Und   Female Biden Trump Und
Democratic 81.7% 15.0% 2.8%   Democratic 86.0% 10.3% 3.7%
Republican 13.4% 81.7% 3.2%   Republican 11.4% 85.3% 3.2%
Ind/Other 51.7% 37.3% 8.9%   Ind/Other 50.0% 42.5% 6.5%
Total 46.2% 48.9% 3.7%   Total 53.9% 42.3% 3.8%
Allegheny Biden Trump Und   Allegheny Biden Trump Und
Democratic 84.4% 12.5% 3.1%   Democratic 82.1% 17.9% 0.0%
Republican 18.8% 75.0% 6.3%   Republican 12.5% 87.5% 0.0%
Ind/Other 33.3% 33.3% 33.3%   Ind/Other 70.0% 20.0% 0.0%
Total 55.6% 36.4% 8.0%   Total 61.8% 37.4% 0.0%
Philadelphia Biden Trump Und   Philadelphia Biden Trump Und
Democratic 96.7% 0.0% 3.3%   Democratic 86.7% 6.7% 6.7%
Republican 18.2% 72.7% 9.1%   Republican 14.3% 85.7% 0.0%
Ind/Other 63.6% 18.2% 18.2%   Ind/Other 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total 81.8% 12.4% 5.9%   Total 80.6% 13.9% 5.5%
South East Biden Trump Und   South East Biden Trump Und
Democratic 89.5% 10.5% 0.0%   Democratic 95.8% 4.2% 0.0%
Republican 28.6% 64.3% 7.1%   Republican 20.7% 75.9% 3.4%
Ind/Other 60.0% 33.3% 6.7%   Ind/Other 64.7% 29.4% 5.9%
Total 57.3% 38.5% 4.2%   Total 64.6% 33.5% 1.9%
Capitol Biden Trump Und   Capitol Biden Trump Und
Democratic 72.7% 18.2% 9.1%   Democratic 95.2% 4.8% 0.0%
Republican 8.3% 79.2% 4.2%   Republican 5.7% 88.6% 5.7%
Ind/Other 60.0% 40.0% 0.0%   Ind/Other 41.7% 50.0% 8.3%
Total 34.2% 55.9% 5.1%   Total 45.5% 50.9% 3.7%
NE/Lehigh Biden Trump Und   NE/Lehigh Biden Trump Und
Democratic 63.2% 26.3% 5.3%   Democratic 76.2% 19.0% 4.8%
Republican 6.3% 93.8% 0.0%   Republican 16.7% 83.3% 0.0%
Ind/Other 54.5% 36.4% 0.0%   Ind/Other 30.0% 60.0% 10.0%
Total 36.3% 58.1% 2.2%   Total 49.5% 46.9% 3.5%
The T Biden Trump Und   The T Biden Trump Und
Democratic 87.5% 12.5% 0.0%   Democratic 72.7% 13.6% 13.6%
Republican 2.5% 97.5% 0.0%   Republican 7.5% 90.0% 2.5%
Ind/Other 25.0% 50.0% 16.7%   Ind/Other 20.0% 60.0% 20.0%
Total 26.1% 71.3% 1.7%   Total 30.2% 62.1% 7.6%
West SW Biden Trump Und   West SW Biden Trump Und
Democratic 66.7% 33.3% 0.0%   Democratic 80.0% 14.3% 5.7%
Republican 13.3% 86.7% 0.0%   Republican 7.0% 88.4% 4.7%
Ind/Other 50.0% 50.0% 0.0%   Ind/Other 22.2% 77.8% 0.0%
Total 36.8% 63.2% 0.0%   Total 41.8% 53.4% 4.8%
By Age Range                
Democratic Biden Trump Und   Republican Biden Trump Und
17-40 78.6% 21.4% 0.0%   17-40 15.4% 76.9% 7.7%
41-55 82.6% 13.0% 4.3%   41-55 15.0% 81.7% 3.3%
56-65 80.7% 13.6% 5.7%   56-65 9.3% 89.7% 0.0%
65-75 78.9% 14.7% 5.3%   65-75 12.3% 80.2% 7.4%
>75 92.0% 8.0% 0.0%   >75 7.8% 90.0% 1.1%
Total 81.4% 15.4% 3.0%   Total 12.4% 83.3% 4.0%
Ind/Other Biden Trump Und   Statewide Biden Trump Und
17-40 50.0% 34.6% 7.7%   17-40 52.8% 41.7% 3.6%
41-55 55.0% 43.8% 6.3%   41-55 49.3% 46.1% 4.6%
56-65 38.2% 0.0% 0.0%   56-65 43.6% 52.4% 3.3%
65-75 57.7% 0.0% 0.0%   65-75 47.9% 45.2% 6.4%
>75 50.0% 0.0% 0.0%   >75 49.1% 49.5% 0.9%
Total 50.3% 36.4% 7.8%   Total 48.9% 46.4% 3.9%

Summary/Conclusions:

Question 1: In the race for President of the United States, for which of the following are you most likely to vote?

The cross tabs in the Presidential race confirm some obvious assumptions such as Donald Trump’s strength in the T, West/South West, Capitol, and North East/Lehigh Valley regions, as well as Joe Biden’s strength in the Allegheny, Philadelphia, and South East regions. However, Trump is seeing a drop off from his 2016 support in both the South East (4.85% lower than 2016) and West/South West (5.69%) regions. Those losses among two of the most politically opposite groups of voters in the state should be cause for concern for the Trump campaign, especially because there is no clear path to regaining one side without risking losing the other.

The data also shows Biden winning women voters 53.9% to 42.3% over Trump for a substantial 11.6% lead. Trump leads among male voters, but by a much smaller margin of 48.9% to 46.2%. Trump’s 2.7% lead is within the margin of error of +/- 3.7%, putting the candidates in a statistical dead heat with men.

Independents are breaking for Joe Biden, with the Democratic nominee holding a 50.8% to 38.4% lead among likely independent voters. Although Trump is carrying independents in areas where he is strong overall, three regions of the state (Allegheny, Philadelphia, and South East) show leads of 26.3%, 62.5%, and 31.2% respectively.

Voters from both parties age 17-40 are the age groups most inclined to support the candidate from the opposite party. Democratic voters statewide ages 17-40 support Biden by a margin of 78.6% to 21.4% and Republican voters ages 17-40 support Trump by a margin of 76.9% to 15.4% with 7.7% undecided. These totals from both parties are the highest for any age group not supporting their party’s nominee.

Question 2: In the race for Pennsylvania Attorney General, for which of the following are you most likely to vote?

By Party  
Statewide Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other Margin of Error +/- 3.0%
Democratic 59.4% 8.0% 32.4% 0.3%    
Republican 21.8% 35.2% 41.5% 1.5%    
Ind/Other 37.4% 20.1% 39.4% 3.0%    
Total 41.1% 20.8% 37.0% 1.1%    
Allegheny Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other    
Democratic 75.4% 12.3% 12.3% 0.0%    
Republican 25.0% 42.5% 32.5% 0.0%    
Ind/Other 44.4% 27.8% 27.8% 0.0%    
Total 56.7% 23.2% 20.1% 0.0%    
Philadelphia Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other    
Democratic 51.8% 7.1% 39.3% 1.8%    
Republican 7.1% 57.1% 28.6% 7.1%    
Ind/Other 35.7% 7.1% 57.1% 0.0%    
Total 45.1% 12.9% 39.7% 2.2%    
South East Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other    
Democratic 65.1% 14.0% 20.9% 0.0%    
Republican 30.2% 41.9% 27.9% 0.0%    
Ind/Other 50.0% 25.0% 25.0% 0.0%    
Total 48.9% 26.8% 24.3% 0.0%    
Capitol Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other    
Democratic 64.5% 0.0% 35.5% 0.0%    
Republican 16.4% 36.4% 47.3% 0.0%    
Ind/Other 50.0% 4.5% 45.5% 0.0%    
Total 37.3% 19.8% 42.9% 0.0%    
NE/Lehigh Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other    
Democratic 53.8% 7.7% 38.5% 0.0%    
Republican 42.9% 14.3% 39.3% 3.6%    
Ind/Other 14.3% 7.1% 71.4% 7.1%    
Total 44.7% 10.3% 42.6% 2.3%    
The T Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other    
Democratic 60.9% 8.7% 30.4% 0.0%    
Republican 17.7% 26.6% 53.2% 2.5%    
Ind/Other 29.4% 35.3% 29.4% 5.9%    
Total 31.4% 22.2% 44.3% 2.1%    
West SW Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other    
Democratic 52.0% 8.0% 40.0% 0.0%    
Republican 18.3% 33.8% 47.9% 0.0%    
Ind/Other 38.9% 27.8% 27.8% 5.6%    
Total 34.2% 22.5% 42.8% 0.5%    
By Gender            
Statewide Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other Margin of Error +/- 3.3%
Male 41.3% 21.8% 35.2% 1.7%    
Female 43.3% 18.9% 37.8% 0.0%    
Total 42.4% 20.3% 36.6% 0.8%    
   
Allegheny Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other
Male 52.8% 30.2% 17.0% 0.0%
Female 53.2% 21.0% 25.8% 0.0%
Total 56.2% 24.6% 19.2% 0.0%
Philadelphia Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other
Male 45.7% 13.0% 37.0% 4.3%
Female 36.8% 18.4% 44.7% 0.0%
Total 44.1% 13.3% 40.7% 1.9%
South East Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other
Male 52.1% 29.2% 18.8% 0.0%
Female 45.7% 25.7% 28.6% 0.0%
Total 48.6% 26.4% 25.0% 0.0%
Capitol Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other
Male 41.5% 7.3% 51.2% 0.0%
Female 34.3% 26.9% 38.8% 0.0%
Total 38.1% 17.0% 44.9% 0.0%
NE/Lehigh Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other
Male 37.5% 7.5% 50.0% 5.0%
Female 48.8% 12.2% 39.0% 0.0%
Total 44.9% 10.3% 42.5% 2.4%
The T Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other
Male 34.7% 26.7% 34.7% 4.0%
Female 31.3% 16.4% 52.2% 0.0%
Total 31.3% 21.7% 45.0% 2.0%
West SW Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other
Male 31.6% 29.8% 36.8% 1.8%
Female 34.1% 19.5% 46.3% 0.0%
Total 34.3% 23.2% 42.1% 0.4%
By Party/Sex        
Statewide Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other
Democratic 61.9% 9.7% 27.7% 0.7% 58.3% 8.0% 33.7% 0.0%
Republican 23.8% 32.6% 41.6% 2.0% 23.4% 34.3% 42.3% 0.0%
Ind/Other 39.0% 21.0% 36.0% 4.0% 41.8% 16.6% 41.6% 0.0%
Total 41.3% 21.8% 35.2% 1.7% 43.3% 18.9% 37.8% 0.0%
Allegheny Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other
Democratic 75.9% 10.3% 13.8% 0.0% 75.0% 14.3% 10.7% 0.0%
Republican 18.8% 56.3% 25.0% 0.0% 29.2% 33.3% 37.5% 0.0%
Ind/Other 37.5% 50.0% 12.5% 0.0% 50.0% 10.0% 40.0% 0.0%
Total 51.6% 31.0% 17.4% 0.0% 60.1% 19.2% 20.7% 0.0%
Philadelphia Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other
Democratic 59.3% 3.7% 33.3% 3.7% 44.8% 10.3% 44.8% 0.0%
Republican 12.5% 50.0% 25.0% 12.5% 0.0% 66.7% 33.3% 0.0%
Ind/Other 36.4% 9.1% 54.5% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 66.7% 0.0%
Total 50.0% 10.9% 34.6% 4.5% 39.6% 15.1% 45.3% 0.0%
South East Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other
Democratic 68.4% 26.3% 5.3% 0.0% 62.5% 4.2% 33.3% 0.0%
Republican 28.6% 42.9% 28.6% 0.0% 31.0% 41.4% 27.6% 0.0%
Ind/Other 53.3% 20.0% 26.7% 0.0% 47.1% 29.4% 23.5% 0.0%
Total 48.0% 33.0% 19.1% 0.0% 49.1% 20.7% 30.2% 0.0%
                 
Democratic 60.0% 0.0% 40.0% 0.0% 66.7% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0%
Republican 23.8% 9.5% 66.7% 0.0% 11.8% 52.9% 35.3% 0.0%
Ind/Other 60.0% 10.0% 30.0% 0.0% 41.7% 0.0% 58.3% 0.0%
Total 39.3% 6.8% 53.9% 0.0% 37.0% 26.2% 36.9% 0.0%
                 
Democratic 55.6% 0.0% 44.4% 0.0% 52.4% 14.3% 33.3% 0.0%
Republican 31.3% 18.8% 43.8% 6.3% 58.3% 8.3% 33.3% 0.0%
Ind/Other 0.0% 0.0% 83.3% 16.7% 25.0% 12.5% 62.5% 0.0%
Total 37.2% 8.5% 49.3% 5.0% 51.8% 11.9% 36.3% 0.0%
                 
Democratic 66.7% 12.5% 20.8% 0.0% 54.5% 4.5% 40.9% 0.0%
Republican 17.9% 30.8% 46.2% 5.1% 17.5% 22.5% 60.0% 0.0%
Ind/Other 25.0% 41.7% 25.0% 8.3% 40.0% 20.0% 40.0% 0.0%
Total 30.9% 27.3% 37.6% 4.2% 31.7% 16.3% 52.0% 0.0%
                 
Democratic 46.7% 6.7% 46.7% 0.0% 54.3% 8.6% 37.1% 0.0%
Republican 23.3% 43.3% 33.3% 0.0% 14.6% 26.8% 58.5% 0.0%
Ind/Other 33.3% 25.0% 33.3% 8.3% 50.0% 33.3% 16.7% 0.0%
Total 33.0% 27.9% 38.3% 0.8% 35.6% 18.9% 45.5% 0.0%
By Age Range                
Statewide Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other Margin of Error +/- 3.3%  
17-40 30.6% 22.0% 43.5% 3.9%      
41-55 42.2% 23.2% 34.6% 0.0%      
56-65 39.0% 19.0% 40.8% 1.3%      
65-75 41.8% 22.7% 35.5% 0.0%      
>75 44.4% 19.9% 34.4% 1.3%      
Total 38.5% 21.6% 38.5% 1.5%      
Democratic Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other      
17-40 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0%      
41-55 63.6% 11.4% 25.0% 0.0%      
56-65 59.8% 9.2% 31.0% 0.0%      
65-75 60.0% 8.4% 31.6% 0.0%      
>75 61.9% 8.3% 28.6% 1.2%      
Total 57.9% 6.7% 35.3% 0.1%      
Republican Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other      
17-40 7.7% 53.8% 30.8% 7.7%      
41-55 22.4% 34.5% 43.1% 0.0%      
56-65 20.0% 28.4% 49.5% 2.1%      
65-75 19.7% 40.8% 39.5% 0.0%      
>75 27.3% 30.7% 40.9% 1.1%      
Total 18.7% 38.0% 40.9% 2.3%      
         

Ind/Other
Shapiro Heidelbaugh Undecided Other
17-40 16.7% 8.3% 37.5% 0.0%
41-55 37.8% 23.3% 26.7% 3.3%
56-65 34.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
65-75 54.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
>75 46.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total 31.3% 21.7% 43.0% 4.0%

Summary/Conclusions:

Question 2: In the race for Pennsylvania Attorney General, for which of the following are you most likely to vote?

Unfortunately for Republican challenger Heather Heidelbaugh, there is nothing hidden in the cross tabs to give much hope of unseating incumbent Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who holds a commanding lead. Shapiro’s lead among likely Democratic voters statewide (59.4% to 8.0% with 32.4% undecided), coupled with Heidelbaugh’s inability to lock down the Republican vote (she leads Shapiro only 35.2% to 21.8% among Republican voters with 41.5% undecided) means Shapiro should be well-positioned for a comfortable win.

Question 3: In the race for Pennsylvania Auditor General, for which of the following are you most likely to vote?

By Party
Statewide Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other Margin of Error +/- 3.1%
Democratic 33.1% 9.2% 57.6% 0.0%    
Republican 7.7% 31.4% 60.0% 1.0%    
Ind/Other 20.1% 16.7% 60.8% 2.4%    
Total 20.9% 19.4% 59.0% 0.7%    
Allegheny Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other    
Democratic 33.3% 7.0% 59.6% 0.0%    
Republican 2.5% 37.5% 57.5% 2.5%    
Ind/Other 27.8% 16.7% 55.6% 0.0%    
Total 23.3% 17.4% 58.6% 0.8%    
Philadelphia Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other    
Democratic 37.7% 5.7% 56.6% 0.0%    
Republican 7.7% 53.8% 30.8% 7.7%    
Ind/Other 35.7% 7.1% 57.1% 0.0%    
Total 34.1% 11.4% 53.7% 0.9%    
South East Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other    
Democratic 44.2% 7.0% 48.8% 0.0%    
Republican 18.6% 25.6% 55.8% 0.0%    
Ind/Other 26.7% 16.7% 56.7% 0.0%    
Total 31.5% 15.8% 52.7% 0.0%    
Capitol Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other    
Democratic 29.0% 12.9% 58.1% 0.0%    
Republican 3.8% 28.3% 67.9% 0.0%    
Ind/Other 18.2% 13.6% 68.2% 0.0%    
Total 14.4% 21.2% 64.5% 0.0%    

NE/Lehigh
Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other    
Democratic 26.3% 13.2% 60.5% 0.0%    
Republican 3.6% 35.7% 60.7% 0.0%    
Ind/Other 0.0% 7.7% 84.6% 7.7%    
Total 14.0% 21.7% 63.4% 0.9%    
The T Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other    
Democratic 23.9% 10.9% 65.2% 0.0%    
Republican 2.6% 26.9% 70.5% 0.0%    
Ind/Other 5.9% 23.5% 64.7% 5.9%    
Total 9.1% 21.9% 68.4% 0.5%    
West SW Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other    
Democratic 20.0% 12.0% 68.0% 0.0%    
Republican 5.6% 32.4% 62.0% 0.0%    
Ind/Other 22.2% 33.3% 44.4% 0.0%    
Total 13.1% 23.9% 63.0% 0.0%    
By Gender            
Statewide Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other Margin of Error +/- 3.1%
Male 21.0% 21.4% 56.8% 0.8%    
Female 20.7% 16.8% 62.5% 0.0%    
Total 20.8% 18.9% 59.9% 0.4%    
Allegheny Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other    
Male 20.8% 22.6% 54.7% 1.9%    
Female 22.6% 16.1% 61.3% 0.0%    
Total 23.4% 17.5% 58.0% 1.0%    
Philadelphia Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other    
Male 33.3% 11.1% 53.3% 2.2%    
Female 31.4% 17.1% 51.4% 0.0%    
Total 34.1% 12.2% 52.9% 0.9%    
South East Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other    
Male 41.3% 19.6% 39.1% 0.0%    
Female 22.9% 14.3% 62.9% 0.0%    
Total 33.6% 15.8% 50.6% 0.0%    
Capitol Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other    
Male 10.0% 15.0% 75.0% 0.0%    
Female 16.7% 24.2% 59.1% 0.0%    
Total 14.2% 20.1% 65.7% 0.0%    
NE/Lehigh Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other    
Male 15.4% 20.5% 61.5% 2.6%    
Female 12.5% 20.0% 67.5% 0.0%    
Total 13.9% 21.4% 63.6% 1.0%    
The T Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other    
Male 9.5% 27.0% 62.2% 1.4%    
Female 10.4% 14.9% 74.6% 0.0%    
Total 8.8% 22.4% 68.4% 0.4%    
           
West SW Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other
Male 12.3% 29.8% 57.9% 0.0%
Female 13.4% 22.0% 64.6% 0.0%
Total 12.6% 23.6% 63.8% 0.0%
By Party/Sex        
Statewide Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other
Democratic 33.0% 8.3% 58.8% 0.0% 32.1% 9.6% 58.3% 0.0%
Republican 10.9% 34.1% 54.1% 0.9% 5.5% 26.9% 67.6% 0.0%
Ind/Other 19.1% 17.4% 60.5% 2.9% 20.0% 14.7% 65.3% 0.0%
Total 21.0% 21.4% 56.8% 0.8% 20.7% 16.8% 62.5% 0.0%
Allegheny Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other
Democratic 31.0% 10.3% 58.6% 0.0% 35.7% 3.6% 60.7% 0.0%
Republican 6.3% 43.8% 43.8% 6.3% 0.0% 33.3% 66.7% 0.0%
Ind/Other 12.5% 25.0% 62.5% 0.0% 40.0% 10.0% 50.0% 0.0%
Total 20.3% 23.5% 54.1% 2.1% 26.2% 12.4% 61.4% 0.0%
Philadelphia Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other
Democratic 37.0% 0.0% 63.0% 0.0% 38.5% 11.5% 50.0% 0.0%
Republican 14.3% 57.1% 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 0.0%
Ind/Other 36.4% 9.1% 54.5% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 66.7% 0.0%
Total 33.7% 9.1% 55.1% 2.0% 34.3% 14.4% 51.2% 0.0%
South East Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other
Democratic 47.4% 15.8% 36.8% 0.0% 41.7% 0.0% 58.3% 0.0%
Republican 35.7% 28.6% 35.7% 0.0% 10.3% 24.1% 65.5% 0.0%
Ind/Other 38.5% 15.4% 46.2% 0.0% 17.6% 17.6% 64.7% 0.0%
Total 40.7% 21.6% 37.7% 0.0% 27.5% 10.9% 61.7% 0.0%
Capitol Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other
Democratic 30.0% 10.0% 60.0% 0.0% 28.6% 14.3% 57.1% 0.0%
Republican 5.0% 20.0% 75.0% 0.0% 3.0% 33.3% 63.6% 0.0%
Ind/Other 0.0% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0% 33.3% 16.7% 50.0% 0.0%
Total 11.8% 15.7% 72.5% 0.0% 16.4% 23.9% 59.6% 0.0%
NE/Lehigh Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other
Democratic 35.3% 5.9% 58.8% 0.0% 19.0% 19.0% 61.9% 0.0%
Republican 0.0% 43.8% 56.3% 0.0% 8.3% 25.0% 66.7% 0.0%
Ind/Other 0.0% 0.0% 83.3% 16.7% 0.0% 14.3% 85.7% 0.0%
Total 14.7% 22.2% 60.9% 2.2% 13.1% 20.7% 66.1% 0.0%
The T Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other
Democratic 25.0% 8.3% 66.7% 0.0% 22.7% 13.6% 63.6% 0.0%
Republican 0.0% 39.5% 60.5% 0.0% 5.0% 15.0% 80.0% 0.0%
Ind/Other 8.3% 25.0% 58.3% 8.3% 0.0% 20.0% 80.0% 0.0%
Total 7.1% 30.2% 61.8% 0.9% 10.5% 15.0% 74.6% 0.0%
West SW Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other
Democratic 13.3% 6.7% 80.0% 0.0% 22.9% 14.3% 62.9% 0.0%
Republican 6.7% 36.7% 56.7% 0.0% 4.9% 29.3% 65.9% 0.0%
Ind/Other 25.0% 41.7% 33.3% 0.0% 16.7% 16.7% 66.7% 0.0%
Total 11.0% 26.0% 63.0% 0.0% 14.1% 21.4% 64.5% 0.0%
By Age Range  
Statewide Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other Margin of Error +/- 3.3%
17-40 26.3% 20.2% 49.7% 3.9%    
41-55 25.4% 24.1% 50.6% 0.0%    
56-65 17.6% 15.7% 65.9% 0.8%    
65-75 18.5% 18.2% 63.3% 0.0%    
>75 14.5% 23.7% 61.7% 0.0%    
Total 21.7% 20.2% 56.9% 1.2%    
Democratic Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other    
17-40 36.4% 9.1% 54.5% 0.0%    
41-55 43.2% 11.4% 45.5% 0.0%    
56-65 31.4% 9.3% 59.3% 0.0%    
65-75 27.7% 6.4% 66.0% 0.0%    
>75 26.5% 12.0% 61.4% 0.0%    
Total 34.3% 9.5% 56.2% 0.0%    
Republican Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other    
17-40 15.4% 38.5% 38.5% 7.7%    
41-55 5.2% 37.9% 56.9% 0.0%    
56-65 5.3% 22.3% 71.3% 1.1%    
65-75 8.0% 32.0% 60.0% 0.0%    
>75 3.5% 34.9% 61.6% 0.0%    
Total 7.8% 33.1% 57.2% 2.0%    
Ind/Other Ahmed DeFoor Undecided Other    
17-40 16.7% 13.0% 65.2% 0.0%    
41-55 35.1% 24.1% 65.5% 0.0%    
56-65 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%    
65-75 21.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%    
>75 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%    
Total 21.2% 16.6% 58.3% 3.8%    

Summary/Conclusions:

Question 3: In the race for Pennsylvania Auditor General, for which of the following are you most likely to vote?

The Auditor General contest is by far the most competitive among the three statewide row office campaigns. Democrat Nina Ahmed is in a statistical dead heat with Republican Timothy DeFoor, with a whopping 59% of likely voters undecided. The fact that Ahmed has failed to build a formidable lead in her home region of Philadelphia, where her opponent is polling slightly higher than Donald Trump, is worrisome. If the Republicans end up taking back one of the row offices from the Democrats, this is likely the one they will end up with on Election Night.

Question 4: In the race for State Treasurer, for which of the following are you most likely to vote?

By Party  
Statewide Torsella Garrity Undecided Other Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
Democratic 33.8% 8.1% 57.9% 0.2%    
Republican 12.0% 27.4% 59.1% 1.6%    
Ind/Other 27.1% 12.8% 56.8% 3.4%    
Total 23.9% 16.7% 58.3% 1.2%    
             

Allegheny
Torsella Garrity Undecided Other    
Democratic 33.3% 5.6% 61.1% 0.0%    
Republican 10.0% 32.5% 55.0% 2.5%    
Ind/Other 11.1% 27.8% 61.1% 0.0%    
Total 23.9% 16.1% 59.2% 0.8%    
Philadelphia Torsella Garrity Undecided Other    
Democratic 36.0% 4.0% 60.0% 0.0%    
Republican 8.3% 58.3% 25.0% 8.3%    
Ind/Other 45.5% 9.1% 36.4% 9.1%    
Total 33.6% 10.8% 53.8% 1.8%    
South East Torsella Garrity Undecided Other    
Democratic 39.5% 9.3% 51.2% 0.0%    
Republican 9.3% 27.9% 62.8% 0.0%    
Ind/Other 30.8% 7.7% 61.5% 0.0%    
Total 26.0% 16.8% 57.2% 0.0%    
Capitol Torsella Garrity Undecided Other    
Democratic 25.0% 17.9% 57.1% 0.0%    
Republican 13.5% 26.9% 59.6% 0.0%    
Ind/Other 38.1% 0.0% 61.9% 0.0%    
Total 20.4% 20.6% 59.0% 0.0%    
NE/Lehigh Torsella Garrity Undecided Other    
Democratic 28.9% 5.3% 65.8% 0.0%    
Republican 17.9% 21.4% 57.1% 3.6%    
Ind/Other 0.0% 16.7% 75.0% 8.3%    
Total 21.0% 13.2% 63.3% 2.4%    
The T Torsella Garrity Undecided Other    
Democratic 37.0% 10.9% 50.0% 2.2%    
Republican 10.1% 21.5% 67.1% 1.3%    
Ind/Other 17.6% 23.5% 52.9% 5.9%    
Total 18.7% 18.6% 60.8% 2.0%    
West SW Torsella Garrity Undecided Other    
Democratic 20.0% 14.0% 66.0% 0.0%    
Republican 10.0% 30.0% 60.0% 0.0%    
Ind/Other 29.4% 17.6% 52.9% 0.0%    
Total 15.9% 22.2% 61.9% 0.0%    
By Gender            
Statewide Torsella Garrity Undecided Other Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
Male 26.7% 18.9% 52.9% 1.5%    
Female 19.4% 15.7% 64.7% 0.2%    
Total 22.8% 17.2% 59.2% 0.8%    
Allegheny Torsella Garrity Undecided Other    
Male 25.5% 23.5% 49.0% 2.0%    
Female 18.0% 14.8% 67.2% 0.0%    
Total 23.8% 16.0% 59.3% 1.0%    
Philadelphia Torsella Garrity Undecided Other
Male 39.0% 14.6% 41.5% 4.9%
Female 25.0% 12.5% 62.5% 0.0%
Total 32.0% 11.1% 55.4% 1.5%
South East Torsella Garrity Undecided Other
Male 40.5% 19.0% 40.5% 0.0%
Female 17.1% 14.3% 68.6% 0.0%
Total 28.0% 18.2% 53.8% 0.0%
Capitol Torsella Garrity Undecided Other
Male 25.0% 5.6% 69.4% 0.0%
Female 20.0% 26.2% 53.8% 0.0%
Total 21.5% 17.4% 61.2% 0.0%
NE/Lehigh Torsella Garrity Undecided Other
Male 23.1% 15.4% 56.4% 5.1%
Female 17.9% 10.3% 71.8% 0.0%
Total 20.9% 12.9% 63.8% 2.4%
The T Torsella Garrity Undecided Other
Male 28.0% 18.7% 50.7% 2.7%
Female 10.4% 17.9% 70.1% 1.5%
Total 17.9% 18.9% 61.2% 2.0%
West SW Torsella Garrity Undecided Other
Male 14.0% 29.8% 56.1% 0.0%
Female 17.5% 17.5% 65.0% 0.0%
Total 14.7% 22.6% 62.8% 0.0%
By Party/Sex        
Statewide Torsella Garrity Undecided Other Torsella Garrity Undecided Other
Democratic 36.0% 6.7% 57.3% 0.0% 27.7% 10.1% 61.8% 0.4%
Republican 17.2% 31.0% 49.7% 2.1% 7.9% 24.4% 67.8% 0.0%
Ind/Other 31.6% 13.7% 50.5% 4.2% 20.6% 10.6% 68.9% 0.0%
Total 26.7% 18.9% 52.9% 1.5% 19.4% 15.7% 64.7% 0.2%
Allegheny Torsella Garrity Undecided Other Torsella Garrity Undecided Other
Democratic 37.0% 11.1% 51.9% 0.0% 29.6% 0.0% 70.4% 0.0%
Republican 18.8% 31.3% 43.8% 6.3% 4.2% 33.3% 62.5% 0.0%
Ind/Other 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 20.0% 10.0% 70.0% 0.0%
Total 26.1% 22.9% 48.9% 2.1% 21.7% 10.1% 68.2% 0.0%
Philadelphia Torsella Garrity Undecided Other Torsella Garrity Undecided Other
Democratic 42.3% 0.0% 57.7% 0.0% 29.2% 8.3% 62.5% 0.0%
Republican 14.3% 71.4% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 40.0% 60.0% 0.0%
Ind/Other 50.0% 12.5% 25.0% 12.5% 33.3% 0.0% 66.7% 0.0%
Total 39.2% 11.5% 45.8% 3.5% 26.6% 10.8% 62.6% 0.0%
South East Torsella Garrity Undecided Other Torsella Garrity Undecided Other
Democratic 47.4% 10.5% 42.1% 0.0% 33.3% 8.3% 58.3% 0.0%
Republican 21.4% 42.9% 35.7% 0.0% 3.4% 20.7% 75.9% 0.0%
Ind/Other 55.6% 0.0% 44.4% 0.0% 17.6% 11.8% 70.6% 0.0%
Total 36.7% 23.8% 39.5% 0.0% 20.5% 13.3% 66.2% 0.0%
Capitol Torsella Garrity Undecided Other Torsella Garrity Undecided Other
Democratic 28.6% 0.0% 71.4% 0.0% 23.8% 23.8% 52.4% 0.0%
Republican 21.1% 10.5% 68.4% 0.0% 9.1% 36.4% 54.5% 0.0%
Ind/Other 30.0% 0.0% 70.0% 0.0% 45.5% 0.0% 54.5% 0.0%
Total 24.5% 6.0% 69.5% 0.0% 18.8% 27.6% 53.7% 0.0%
                 
Democratic 41.2% 0.0% 58.8% 0.0% 19.0% 9.5% 71.4% 0.0%
Republican 12.5% 31.3% 50.0% 6.3% 25.0% 8.3% 66.7% 0.0%
Ind/Other 0.0% 16.7% 66.7% 16.7% 0.0% 16.7% 83.3% 0.0%
Total 22.8% 16.3% 55.9% 5.0% 19.3% 9.8% 70.9% 0.0%
                 
Democratic 45.8% 12.5% 41.7% 0.0% 27.3% 9.1% 59.1% 4.5%
Republican 17.9% 23.1% 56.4% 2.6% 2.5% 20.0% 77.5% 0.0%
Ind/Other 25.0% 16.7% 50.0% 8.3% 0.0% 40.0% 60.0% 0.0%
Total 25.7% 19.8% 52.1% 2.5% 10.5% 18.0% 69.9% 1.5%
                 
Democratic 6.7% 13.3% 80.0% 0.0% 25.7% 14.3% 60.0% 0.0%
Republican 10.0% 40.0% 50.0% 0.0% 10.0% 22.5% 67.5% 0.0%
Ind/Other 33.3% 25.0% 41.7% 0.0% 20.0% 0.0% 80.0% 0.0%
Total 11.1% 28.6% 60.3% 0.0% 18.0% 17.0% 65.0% 0.0%
By Age Range                
Statewide Torsella Garrity Undecided Other Margin of Error +/- 3.7%  
17-40 35.3% 9.8% 50.7% 4.2%      
41-55 26.0% 16.1% 57.9% 0.0%      
56-65 18.4% 19.5% 60.0% 2.1%      
65-75 21.9% 18.0% 59.5% 0.5%      
>75 21.1% 19.2% 59.7% 0.0%      
Total 25.8% 15.7% 56.8% 1.7%      
Democratic Torsella Garrity Undecided Other      
17-40 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0%      
41-55 41.9% 7.0% 51.2% 0.0%      
56-65 29.8% 13.1% 57.1% 0.0%      
65-75 28.0% 5.4% 65.6% 1.1%      
>75 30.4% 11.4% 58.2% 0.0%      
Total 38.3% 6.3% 55.2% 0.2%      
Republican Torsella Garrity Undecided Other      
17-40 16.7% 25.0% 50.0% 8.3%      
41-55 8.8% 24.6% 66.7% 0.0%      
56-65 9.7% 25.8% 61.3% 3.2%      
65-75 13.3% 33.3% 53.3% 0.0%      
>75 11.5% 27.6% 60.9% 0.0%      
Total 11.9% 26.9% 58.7% 2.6%      
Ind/Other Torsella Garrity Undecided Other      
17-40 27.3% 9.5% 57.1% 0.0%      
41-55 32.4% 10.7% 60.7% 0.0%      
56-65 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%      
65-75 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%      
>75 28.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total 26.1% 13.0% 56.2% 4.8%

Summary/Conclusions:

Question 4: In the race for State Treasurer, for which of the following are you most likely to vote?

The good news for Democratic incumbent Joe Torsella is that his opponent, Kelly Garrity is polling lower than anyone in the state with only 16.7% support among likely voters. The bad news for Torsella is that he is only polling 7.2% higher, with 23.9% among likely voters. For an incumbent to see 58.3% of voters undecided six weeks before Election Day is somewhat unnerving, but barring a massive push by Garrity and the Republicans, Joe Torsella is likely not in any serious danger of losing his re-election bid.

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